天井より前で引ける確率、1バージョンでもらえるガチャ石の量【海外の反応】

Quick follow-up to my https://sh.reddit.com/r/AzurPromilia/comments/1wiyyjg/cbt3_day_1_impressions_from_beta_testers/. A few days have passed and testers on Tieba/Bilibili actually calculated the math on the gacha rates, and we also have more concrete numbers on the pull income.

Here’s what people found:

**The Soft Pity Math**

In my first post I mentioned testers didn’t feel any soft pity around pull 70. Now theorycrafters did the math based on the official rates:

* Base rate is 0.8% (pulls 1-70), hard pity is 90, and consolidated rate is 1.58%.
* To hit that 1.58% consolidated rate with a 90 hard pity, the increase after pull 70 is only around **+0.166% per pull**.
* At pull 80, your chance is only ~2.4%.
* At pull 89, it’s still only ~3.9%, and then pull 90 jumps to 100%.

Someone made this table comparing the 5-star drop distribution between Promilia and NTE.

|Pull Range|Azur Promilia (%)|Neverness To Everness (%)|
|:-|:-|:-|
|**1–10**|7%|10%|
|**11–30**|13%|16%|
|**31–50**|12%|13%|
|**51–69**|10%|10%|
|**70–79**|9%|**45%**|
|**80–89**|13%|5%|
|**90**|**36%**|1%|

In NTE, soft pity actually works so pulls spike at 70-79. But in Promilia, because the ramp is basically nothing, **around 35% of all 5-stars drop on the 90 hard pity**. That’s why on Day 1 everyone felt like soft pity didn’t exist.

https://reddit.com/media?url=https%3A%2F%2Fpreview.redd.it%2Fpx2vitcjpmqh1.png%3Fwidth%3D414%26format%3Dpng%26auto%3Dwebp%26s%3D36a5c2810a4ed7ae8026a70bc8def9320e5979fa

**Daily, Weekly & Exploration Income**

* **Dailies:** 40 gems.
* **Daily + Monthly Pass:** 120 gems total. A single pull is 160 gems, so even if you buy the monthly card, you don’t get 1 pull per day.
* **Weeklies:** 140 gems total.

https://reddit.com/media?url=https%3A%2F%2Fpreview.redd.it%2Fh9nwla7vpmqh1.png%3Fwidth%3D1080%26format%3Dpng%26auto%3Dwebp%26s%3D7c147f2cb034a45ce0a977ddbf7204ce8833b730

* **Exploration:** Chests mostly give 2, 3, or 5 gems. A player tested this by doing a 100% full clear of Charlulu Village (every chest and puzzle in the village), and the whole village only gave around **0.15 of a pull**.

https://reddit.com/media?url=https%3A%2F%2Fpreview.redd.it%2Fkbia0g38qmqh1.png%3Fwidth%3D782%26format%3Dpng%26auto%3Dwebp%26s%3D0f0d4f469902ec109e750d70ab833759b19a6cc4

Here is the projected 30-day recurring income (excluding one-time story and first-time map chests):

* **F2P**: ~6,125 gems + 5 limited tickets = around 43 limited pulls per month (plus ~136 standard pulls)
* **Monthly Pass only**: ~8,825 gems + 5 limited tickets = around 60 limited pulls per month
* **Both Passes (Monthly + Battle Pass)**: ~9,505 gems + 10 limited tickets = around 69 limited pulls per month

At launch F2P can get around **99 limited pulls total** (79 pulls from gems + 10 quest tickets + 10 launch mail tickets), F2P can guarantee the rate-up 5-star once in patch 1.0.

**Spender Feedback & Skins**

In Day 1 I mentioned a 3k RMB tester, now another tester who spent 6,300 RMB (~$900) shared their experience:

* Even as a spender, limited pulls feel really tight because you hit 90 pity so often and the game gives almost no free pulls back from dailies.
* Overworld skins and dorm skins are sold separately (45$ in total). You can’t wear open-world skins in the dorm, and you can’t wear dorm outfits outside. Testers are asking Manjuu to make them usable in both modes.

https://reddit.com/media?url=https%3A%2F%2Fpreview.redd.it%2Feupr7s9hqmqh1.png%3Fwidth%3D713%26format%3Dpng%26auto%3Dwebp%26s%3D1c35581ffed51031151b670252d4e34493208b09

No 50/50 on character banners is still the best part of the gacha. But having 35% of players go all the way to 90 pulls combined with low daily income feels rough right now.

Hopefully manjuu buffs the soft pity ramp or gives more daily gems before launch.

Well, depends on how long the limited banner is up and how often they come around.

If they stay up for longer than one patch and they only add new limiteds every 2-3 patches then it’s not as harsh, but otherwise, yeah, this is quite stingy.

If they are already plan to have a bunch of paid skins I see no reason for the gacha to be so stingy.

do you really expect they make 1 character per 3 patches when they putting like 30 character on release? it will be 1 or 2 per patch like any other 3d gacha, i lost my hope in manjuu that they make not stingy game

what do you mean a new limited only every 2-3 patches the game will have no hype or momentum? 1.1 and there’s already no new characters what even is there to be excited about for a new game that’s already in a tightly competitive market where every gacha is trying to vye for players with new stuff every patch?

They can add new characters every patch but not all of them have to be limited. They can just be new standard banner ones which in turn makes every character in the standard banner harder to get so they can open specific banners for them. There also isn’t a 50-50 so you can’t get standard characters from anywhere but the standard banner. FGO also has locked characters meaning they are limited until you finish a certain part of the story, after whcih you can get them from standard banner too. (And because of this they have less individual banners and feel even more limited than limited characters)

There are various ways to do this other than spamming limited characters like a coal mine like HSR which is promply failing because of it too. (There are other reasons as well though)

it’s a unique take that’s the first ive heard of but i unfortunately dont think going this way will ever be as profitable or desirable enough for the company to consider over the already proven success of regular limited character releases that not only will deliver more regular/stable and predictable hype and bring more money but will also fund the game more to improve on its core assets (given the company wants to of course, which i think manjuu is more prone to being like kurogames instead of say another hoyo/corporate based company would) which in turn will develop a more loyal fanbase.

fomo is a poweful driving factor and makes players want to play that game for that specific period to get that character. if more characters are standard it would make players feel more loose and liberal with their choices to allocate their time of when they’re playing that game.

from a player’s perspective there’s a point to be made for it, for companies it’s probably a big deal to lose over the opportunity to capitalize on fomo. sure players may get sick of new games when the market is already saturated but i believe if the company delivers a good product players will ultimately stick with it because boy i really dont think the gachas out right now are really all that good/have a lot of room to improve, so i think there’s still room for new games to improve on or capture player share from last gen gachas.

Thats not happening. They will release a new character every 3 weeks more than likely

Are there dupes? If yes, are they useful? Are characters vertical investment merchants?

Man, I was hoping that we’d at least get a soft guarantee to acquire all characters (more or less like Azur Lane), but it doesn’t seem like that’s gonna be the case

> – Dailies: 40 gems.
> – Daily + Monthly Pass: 120 gems total. A single pull is 160 gems, so even if you buy the monthly card, you don’t get 1 pull per day.

That actually sounds very similar to Genshin Impact. 60 Primogems from Dailies, 90 Primogems from the “Blessing of the Welkin Moon”, and then splitting the 300 Genesis Crystals over the 30 days, you get 10 per day totaling 160 currency per day to do exactly one pull per day if you buy the ‘monthly pass’ *and* do the daily stuff

And no, I don’t consider that a good thing

3d open world is very expensive

In NTE, soft pity grants 17% per pull so it is rare to hit hard pity

I was expecting manjuu to finally break curse of stingy 3d gacha, hypergryph was my first disappointment with AKE and now manjuu with AP. I understand that creating games cost but when we look at costs… they earn like 20x of what is needed to keep game alive without problem. I have 300h+ in Palword and 450+ in GranBlue Fantasy Relink so the game was looking good for me. But right now even 2d gacha games are stingy af look at CZN situation that pulls gets from 600 in season 1, 300 season 2, season 3 almost 250 (with half anni rewards) to like 200 in season 4. So is there any hope? I like gacha games because they create community and give you always something new to do or talk about. Is it really that wrong to expect gacha be like Arknights that with 5$ sub per month was able to get 95% of 6* and they was also making useful 5* and 4*? Or AzurLane that f2p was making you able to get 100% of characters? In new games when we count character as complete char + weapon f2p maybe get 30% of rooster.

Something like Azur Lane is probably never going to happen again.

Skin monetization has become worse over the years. Skin gacha has become normalized that I lost hope already. I’m just hoping it doesn’t become even more popular than it is. It’s a miracle that Azur Lane hasn’t gone that route, considering GFL is one of the few collection gacha that still exist and has it.

Hopefully it doesn’t happen to Promilia too…

The reason I’m worried is that GFL 2 adopted the usual hoyo style model. And look at what happened, they added skin gacha on top of it anyways.

Azur lane and Girls Frontline (first one) were both so good to f2p.

Yep, crazy that it was even better during its time when gacha was a lot more worse than it is now.

>Here is the projected 30-day recurring income (excluding one-time story and first-time map chests):

**F2P**: ~6,125 gems + 5 limited tickets = around 43 limited pulls per month (plus ~136 standard pulls)


Do you happen to have exact breakdowns for what leads to this amount? Every total calculation I see seems to be wildly different.

People don’t get enough gems for a single pull with daily + 1 day of monthly pass even in hoyo games and wuwa

NTE is right here. You also can get 90% of the characters in Endfield with the 5€ pass. Even ZZZ a hoyo game is somewhat generous.

The curse of stingy gachas is over. Even if we can’t call them as generous as some older games.

Gacha companies are not your friend. Developpement cost are low which mean they can afford to be more generous and still make a big profit. Azur Lane could give you half their skins for free and still be profitable.

If Azur Promilia go hard on skin monetization she should expect a good gacha like NTE is doing right now.

Unless they plan to have events that shit out gems, this isn’t going to end well. I don’t mind buying skins, but if you start asking me to buy all the characters to buy the skins…I have no idea what they are thinking, considering how well their model with Azur Lane has worked up until now.

that soft pity is atrocious, I hope they can push for a much better one

this reminds me of Aether Gazer, the last 4 rolls is the only time it increased so it was essentially useless lol

I guess thankfully for me I’m not really interested in lewd or gooner skins, but still it’s a bit unfortunate. The no 50/50 is really the only thing keeping it from being horrid overall.

Yeah this isn’t looking good and a little rough, either they need to increase the amount of gems we get per patch or buff the pity/pull rate. Having to farm nearly 2 patches to get one limited characters sound horrible.

This is terrible.

2 gems per chest is not even worth opening

It really sounds like in AP rolling won’t be worth at all unless you can hit the 90 pity. I hope they change that because it just feels way too high and restricting.

People enjoy being able to throw at least one roll per day and having a decent chance to do something with it and people also enjoy the chance to get something early.

Setting the total conversion of days to rolls and rolls to drops aside because that’s a different sort of topic this doesn’t seem like a system people will enjoy and will make many less likely to play.

Man, that is some DOGSHIT, like I would be pretty shocked if the per patch income remained that way, because that sucks so much balls. Like I love the lack of 50/50, because the 50/50 system feels soul crushing as someone who is a light spender ($5 monthly only). But it doesn’t fucking matter if you can’t even get HALF the hard pity as F2P, you would still have to grind for multiple patches just to get a single limited character, just like the games that do have a 50/50.

Like I love NTE specifically because I feel like I can pretty easily get every new character, even F2P, and so I feel so much better about pulling in that game, and I am never really worried about missing out. That’s actually why I feel pretty good about spending a bit of money on that game, because I don’t feel like the game is trying to squeeze me for every last drop of my time just to get me to spend money.

I PRAY they buff your income and the soft pity, because the game has some really good potential. But if they are going to be that stingy, then I just cant see myself playing it for any long period, it would just feel so awful with that income, especially with those odds.

well expected, yostar game